Predictions for the 30th of June protest outcomes are galore!

Political Pundits Abound

Political naiveté prevails.

We shall wake up on June 30th and witness thousands of truly patriotic people marching in to the streets. Myself included. The rioters shall demand for the departure of  President Morsi and demand for early presidential elections. I agree with all of you who see he has used his election to cement a totally un-democratic rule of lawlessness in a country desperately in need of the rule of law. I too cannot watch his speeches, or follow his narrative. He is unfit to be the president of this great nation. However he is the first, so called, "democratically" elected President of Egypt.

There may be confrontations between the peaceful marchers and Islamists. Incriminations will abound. The old NDP and their cronies will be suspect, so will the Political Islamists with their conniving Machiavellian orchestrators. The riots may last a few days and there may be some blood shed. In the absence of a strong police force the military may be asked to intervene, and they shall intervene. They shall intervene to break up the bloodletting and they will go back to their barracks. Under no circumstance shall they revolt against the President. They shall keep the status quo until the next presidential elections. So for those of you who have hopes for a military coup, I hate to disappoint you. There shall be none. The military shall only intervene once the hungry masses start revolting against the regime for not providing the very basic of their needs. This day will inevitably arrive, based on the totally incompetent governance performance of Political Islam in power.

Therefore our survival as a nation depends on the enlightened many of our youth, and the seasoned younger politicians, to come up with a well versed, authentic political ideology. One that people can relate to. One that embraces secularism and liberalism yet proposes it in a moderate Islamic language appealing to the people, and especially the youth. This ideology shall be embraced by a party. A party of the people, led by the youth, clean seasoned politicians, intellectuals, and technocrats of Egypt. Then comes the most important, most crucial, and most essential part. Raising money. There is no political system in the world which is not funded. The successful political parties are heavily funded, while the marginal ones are underfunded. The only reason Political Islam has been successful is because their coffers are extremely full. They also know how to obtain their funds through avenues we are totally unfamiliar with. The MB spent over 600 million Egyptian Pounds  just only on the presidential elections. As we speak, they have already mobilized in all Governorates in preparation for the Parliamentary elections. Hundreds of millions are being lavished on the unsuspecting majority of Egyptians who can barely survive on a day's meal. The Salafis are equally funded. Wahabi Saudi Sheikhs are on a vendetta path with Qatar because of its funding of the Brotherhood. Furthermore, they firmly believe that they will fill up the void for those who voted for the Brotherhood, and who are now disenchanted. In the absence of an opposition, they believe they will be the benefactors of the protest votes against the Muslim Brotherhood in the next parliamentary elections. Some romantics think the Salafis are more benign and a better choice than the brotherhood. They are deluded. The Salafis, once understanding how the political system functions, will be one hundred times more repressive than the Brothers.

Sorry to burst your bubble my fellow Egyptians. Simply put: Our true salvation lies in the understanding that a solid and effective opposition lies in a group of people who can articulate a very well written political ideology which is backed by a huge financial establishment.

Deep down in my heart, it pains me to write these words because I would wish, more than anything, for a revolt that would remove this tyrannical rule forever. Therefore if you disagree with me and want to bet otherwise, I am willing to take you on. Because this is one bet I would be most happy and willing to lose.

May God guide us all to what is best for our great nation and people.

An Empty House In Hacienda

A dear friend of my wife's got married last week. We were invited to her marriage celebration party at her house in Hacienda during the 23rd of July holiday.

Hacienda is a very upscale summer resort gated compound. It is located several kilometers within the confines of the famous city of El Alamein. The city is known for being the location where Rommel was defeated by Montgomery in WWII, a major turning point in this war.

Hacienda was created following the rapid decline of the city of Agami in the late 90's. Agami was then described, by a visiting foreign friend of mine as “the last bastion of decadence” in Egypt. By the end of his visit he called it “Agony” in lieu of Agami!

Due to Agami’s decline, a famous developer (Mahmoud El Gammal), and a famous architect (Shehab Mazhar) got together to create this new community of Hacienda. They are both very fine and respectable people who have acquired justifiable fame for the quality of their offerings. The masses had charged into Agami and the “well to do” had to flee out. Hacienda was one of the chosen sites. Nearly everyone who owned an upscale house in Agami bought a house in Hacienda. The developers and the architect made a lot of money, and the homeowners got what they paid for.

During the same period, another group of Agamists chose to buy homes in a Kibbutz style project called the Diplomats (Diplomasseyeen). It is now better known as Diplo. These were the simple, non-flamboyant, down to earth, less wealthy Egyptians. They also didn’t want to spend exorbitant money on a summer home. In due course most homeowners in Diplo tore down the facades and interiors of their homes in favor of a more esthetically pleasant, and richer, home. Till this day, inhabitants of both communities still argue why Hacienda is better than Diplo and vice versa!

Those who kept their homes in Agami joined the masses!

This brings me back to my presence at Hacienda on the 23^rd of July 2011. The simple wedding celebration party was made by, and for, the bride and groom’s friends. Food was prepared by a cook. A far cry from the days when the Hacienda hosts catered their food from the Four Seasons. The weather was wonderful, the house simple and modern. We were the house guests of the lovely, and extremely hospitable bride. It was her parent’s home and she felt like she was a guest there too.  The groom is a handsome, warm and an extremely creative person. Genius pops out of his eyes. He also bears a twenty centimeter scar on his right arm. The scar is a result of a surgery he underwent to remove a bullet from his arm. He received this bullet demonstrating against the Mubarak regime long before the revolution was ever contemplated. He doesn’t boast the scar, but when asked he gives you a modest recount of the event. He was bullet scarred, yet he is here in Hacienda celebrating his marriage. He displays a happy smile when we talk about the revolution. He has spent many a night in Tahrir square since the 25^th of January. He can recount a myriad of stories about this revolution.
The bride’s house is on the second row of houses, and yet it overlooks the sea. To its left is a house which directly overlooks the sea. The shutters are closed and it looks, and feels, uninhabited. The only thing different about it is the funny looking, hi tech, antenna sprouting from the middle of the roof. I ask the bride: “Who owns that house”? She replies: “Gamal Mubarak”.

So here I am, enjoying a lovely balmy summer day in Hacienda. I am sitting in the garden overlooking an empty house, talking to the groom and my eyes keep wandering to that scar on his arm. My mind also wanders to a friend, I once had, who is not in his home overlooking the sea in Hacienda. He is in a house with a room with no view. How on earth did he get there?

That is another story.